Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 789.813782 896.503810 1017.541561 1166.127631 1345.137136 1555.801137 1.825407e+03
2024-11-03 641.520428 783.610768 962.007630 1207.248980 1543.552092 2001.096610 2.694145e+03
2024-11-10 563.881262 719.192062 926.463089 1232.457541 1689.664858 2378.378464 3.562931e+03
2024-11-17 510.514172 673.881860 902.921455 1261.754174 1839.198636 2792.928496 4.645944e+03
2024-11-24 456.968646 618.750089 854.109409 1240.090051 1898.863763 3072.713186 5.608421e+03
2024-12-01 423.773507 587.664723 834.597903 1257.889177 2023.885404 3499.792621 7.076430e+03
2024-12-08 399.119621 565.729409 825.044232 1288.564530 2176.395416 4027.028207 9.094588e+03
2024-12-15 372.409305 537.325175 800.913581 1288.794234 2269.696490 4461.231992 1.118572e+04
2024-12-22 344.409007 503.929761 764.330347 1260.049516 2297.232247 4754.647412 1.309808e+04
2024-12-29 327.512204 486.776134 753.014046 1276.398882 2423.548261 5339.976653 1.659439e+04
2025-01-05 304.203131 456.926032 716.373639 1237.775640 2418.255220 5575.049991 1.899387e+04
2025-01-12 286.301578 434.725365 691.099907 1218.321719 2453.735770 5943.799473 2.250490e+04
2025-01-19 264.650025 405.862408 653.547283 1173.926977 2433.571698 6186.215705 2.610433e+04
2025-01-26 255.644534 398.478922 655.411637 1214.866608 2646.090346 7327.439296 3.804369e+04
2025-02-02 245.742309 388.442645 650.813206 1240.383157 2825.771667 8486.947799 5.475151e+04
2025-02-09 237.154324 379.966744 648.188205 1269.916080 3028.028171 9911.916940 8.261660e+04
2025-02-16 224.140832 362.298554 625.427217 1248.067984 3069.777057 10678.916165 1.087513e+05
2025-02-23 216.141730 353.336980 619.371223 1266.019975 3245.290378 12278.269078 1.701862e+05
2025-03-02 209.926042 347.227548 618.517703 1296.961340 3477.389953 14473.995308 3.013421e+05
2025-03-09 201.577009 336.385896 606.577653 1297.193031 3603.200374 16220.438070 5.003546e+05
2025-03-16 191.554312 321.621965 584.900957 1268.199037 3612.465397 17227.366756 7.422853e+05
2025-03-23 185.790385 314.852066 580.057299 1284.689954 3806.606408 19934.941207 1.654846e+06
2025-03-30 176.377070 300.243793 556.640623 1245.733308 3764.354842 20687.367264 2.597902e+06